AI Predictions for 2026

agent_predictions:
  reliability:
    prediction: "Agents become reliable for defined workflows"
    confidence: "High"
    caveat: "Still not fully autonomous"

  adoption:
    prediction: "Enterprise agent deployments become common"
    confidence: "High"
    drivers:
      - Better guardrails
      - Proven patterns
      - Business pressure

  limits:
    prediction: "Full autonomy remains elusive"
    confidence: "High"
    reason: "Verification problem unsolved"

model_predictions:
  efficiency:
    prediction: "Small models match 2024 large models"
    confidence: "High"

  specialization:
    prediction: "Domain-specific models proliferate"
    confidence: "Medium"

  multimodal:
    prediction: "Video generation becomes practical"
    confidence: "Medium"

enterprise_predictions:
  saturation:
    prediction: "AI in 90%+ of enterprises"
    confidence: "High"

  consolidation:
    prediction: "Platform winners emerge"
    confidence: "High"

  roi_focus:
    prediction: "ROI scrutiny increases"
    confidence: "High"

market_predictions:
  consolidation:
    prediction: "Major M&A in AI tooling"
    confidence: "Medium"

  open_source:
    prediction: "Open models close gap further"
    confidence: "High"

  cost:
    prediction: "Further 50% cost reduction"
    confidence: "Medium"

watch_list_2026:
  technology:
    - Agent reliability progress
    - Video AI applications
    - On-device capabilities

  business:
    - Enterprise ROI data
    - Market consolidation
    - Talent dynamics

  society:
    - Regulation implementation
    - Workforce adaptation
    - Trust evolution